My Million Dollar Mistake

I always derived some perverse kind of pleasure from doing my taxes. For years I insisted on doing them by hand, and always felt some satisfaction when I made everything add up nicely. This was until, two years in a row, I made an error early on in the process, which forced me to redo large swaths of my work. The joy was gone, and I decided to no longer do my taxes by hand.

Now, like many people, I have adopted online methods. I personally use www.ufile.ca. This is a surprisingly well-designed, user-friendly system. One can punch in the numbers from their various tax slips in any sort of order, and it will instantly provide you with an up-to-date result at any time. But, there is a hidden dark side to the ufile tax preparation approach.

Unfortunately, ufile might just be TOO easy to use. Recently in preparing my taxes I ran through my slips in no time, clicked through to the results page, and was happy to see that I had a modest refund owed me. Then I saw something odd. First, I hadn’t used any of my available education amount for the year. Second, the result page didn’t show any capital gain, whereas I expected to have one. After poking around I found my error. I had keyed in some digits wrong for one of my capital gain entries, and instead of claiming a $1.06 gain for the trade, I had claimed a $960,000 loss. This is a substantial error that explained the observed oddities. What scares me is that it was so easy to make this error, and simultaneously difficult to spot it once it had been made. If I had been doing my taxes by hand I would have definitely caught this, but since ufile is so easy, these kinds of errors are simple to make.

I suspect that, compared to the old days of paper returns, there are a large number of people who are making the kinds of mistakes I describe. It is too easy for a mis-key to result in 1 or 2 extra digits somewhere. But I think the problem can be addressed. What the ufile system needs is some kind of intelligent “Clippy” equivalent that will do a sanity check on your inputs. On my return, for example, it might look at the numbers in aggregate and ask me “Hi Garth! Say, you don’t seem like the kind of guy who would lose $960,000 in a money market fund. Are you sure this is right?” Or, in the case of another mistake that I caught, it would say “Hi Garth. I find it kind of strange that these two different trades have exactly the same numbers entered for ‘cost’ and ‘proceeds’. Are you sure you didn’t enter the wrong numbers in one of them?”

So, in conclusion, ufile and web tax preparation services in general are great. Their main problem is that they are TOO great, making simple errors easier to make and overlook. There needs to be a mechanism to address these kinds of errors.

Posted in HCI

Malcolm Gladwell is an Untalented Hack

In case you aren’t current on pseudo-scientific clap-trap, Malcolm Gladwell has written a series of books that start with very simple and intuitive assumptions, and then build sweeping and generally unsupported conclusions. His latest book is “Outliers”, where he investigates very unusual (generally highly skilled or accomplished) people, and tries to figure out how they came to be so. This is a very worthy topic, but in his analysis I think he has done more harm than good.

My latest run-in with Gladwell, and the inspiration for this post, was on TV the other night. He was being interviewed about his book, and specifically brought up his example of how The Beatles became famous. The Beatles, he explained, spent some time playing strip clubs in Hamburg, Germany. This was before they were famous, and they would regularly play 8 hour sets, 7 days a week. This is a very difficult schedule, and as Gladwell explains, this stint of very intensive performing (he equates performing with practicing, which is a mistake in itself), is the reason they became famous. Note, he does not say that this contributed to their success; he says it is the reason for their success. He was very explicit in saying that “talent is the willingness to practice.” This is horse hockey.

I don’t think anyone would dispute that effort is a critical element of success. But, anybody who has spent any time in a creative field would immediately recognize that with the same amount of effort given, there are wide variances in the level of individual accomplishment. In my life I have known dozens of individuals who have put in similar amounts of effort to The Beatles in Hamburg. After having invested the time the results were that these people range wildly in ability, from terrible to very good. None of them, I am sad to say, have reached Beatles levels of accomplishment.

To put it another way, The Beatles were certainly not the only band to play 8 hour sets 7 days a week in Hamburgian strip clubs. Where are the other bands who did so? They put in the same amount of effort as The Beatles. According to Malcolm Gladwell they should be equally accomplished.

Malcolm Gladwell is a very eloquent speaker. He presents things in such a way that one has a tendency to immediately agree with him. But, after a little bit of effort and probably a minute or so spent analyzing his statements one realizes that they just don’t hold up (I call this the Stephen Lewis effect). Furthermore, his writing seems designed specifically to make us feel better about ourselves. The particular claim that effort is the only differentiator is perfect for convincing myself that yes, I can be a rock star or an NFL quarterback, all I have to do is get off the couch (I’ll do this next week) and go put some effort in. I’m sorry, but the bottom 99% of us are simply incapable of being world class at pretty much everything. Implying otherwise is not going to help.

So, Mr. Gladwell, I really don’t think your writing is any good. I know you’ve put in the effort to write good books, but I don’t think you have the innate talent required to do so. And yes, the title is overly harsh, but I decided to honour Mr. Gladwell by extrapolating further than is justifiable from the data available.

Also Spracht Zarathustra

I’ve written before about some of my experimentations in popular music forms, but until now haven’t said much about my supposed history as a serious musician. In fact, based on the material available online, some might question the assertion that I was (am?) fairly accomplished in the musical realm.

Luckily I’ve now managed to work around some stupid file size upload limits, and can now provide, for your listening pleasure, a recording of Also Spracht Zarathustra, by Richard Strauss, as performed by me (and 90 or so other people) at Jack Singer Hall in Calgary.

listen to it

The first minute is immediately recognizable to anybody who watches movies, but very few have listened to the remaining half hour, which is just as good, and worth sitting through. The story it tells is of man’s ascension from beast to overman, but of course we’ve all read our Nietzsche so we know that.

My fondest memory playing this piece occurred at Toronto’s Roy Thompson Hall. It’s a very nice hall, and was fairly new when we played it in 1994. Of particular interest was the organ, which as organs go is considered to be “beefy.” Some of the string players ganged up on the organist after the dress rehearsal and convinced her to see what it could do in the performance. So, when the performance came along she cranked that sucker up to 11 and absolutely let loose during the first massive 2001-esque crescendo. That thing shook the entire hall, leaving a few thousand heads exploded, and I bet God himself was trembling at the sound. It was of course a totally unprofessional thing to do, and she was banned from playing the Strauss for the rest of the tour, but holy crap it was amazing.

So, please enjoy, but if you intend to listen I suggest you right click and download, as it’s >30 MB, and I don’t want to kill my server.

Apple Issues

I often give Microsoft a hard time, and justifiably so, I think. But that doesn’t mean that everything is roses in Apple land. While Apple’s products are generally of the superior sort: my G5 tower is built like a tank and functioning perfectly 5+ years on, there are flaws that occasionally bite me in the ass.

The first problem is Apple’s obsession with being ultra cutting edge. This started with the elimination of the floppy drive in the iMac, which was controversial but turned out to be prescient. That didn’t cause me problems, but other changes have. My new Macbook Pro, for example, only has a Firewire 800 port. This causes problems when my audio interface only has a Firewire 400 port, and the book store is out of adapters. I end up instead recording on a more ancient Mac and then having to copy the audio over to my new one. Tedious.

Then there are the video outputs. I had just started to get used to DVI, and then Apple came out with these mini-DVI things, or whatever they are called. I’m not even sure. There are even a couple other standards that they supported that I skipped over because they seem to change every year. A couple of weeks ago in a meeting a professor was unable to project because her new Macbook adapter was DVI-D and didn’t have analog out that could feed the projector.

From a developer’s perspective there is Apple’s bizarre choice of going with Objective C as the language of choice. At the time of this decision I don’t think I had ever actually met anybody who knew Objective C. I think the choice had something to do with their purchase of Be and rolling BeOS into OS X, but still, weird.

I still think Apple makes some of the best hardware and software out there. It is just a pain sometimes when you are hauled kicking and screaming into the future, when you just want to sit back and enjoy your Firewire 400 device for a few more years.

Posted in HCI

Microsoft Doesn’t Speak Its Own Language

Today, in a rather desperate attempt at improving the performance of my demo by running it on a different machine than usual, I went about installing MS Visual Studio on a machine that was otherwise Visual Studioless. Microsoft is nice enough to provide a free 90 day trial version, so I downloaded that and went about installing it. Except I couldn’t, because they distribute the installer as an .iso file. So what’s the problem? An .iso file is a disk image, which Windows is able to burn to a CD. That’s fine enough, except I didn’t have a CD handy, and even if I did I wouldn’t want to waste it on burning the .iso. After all, why do I have to move the bits from my computer to a CD just in order to get them back onto my computer? They are there to begin with!

And then I discover, shockingly, that Windows XP doesn’t know how to mount an .iso. I would think this was basic functionality, and it is functionality provided by a number of non-free third party software suites, but Windows doesn’t know about it. So, Microsoft is distributing a free trial version of its development software, trying to attract developers to its platform, and is distributing that software in a format that is nothing short of a gigantic pain in the butt.

Eventually I discovered that there is an unofficial, unsupported .iso mounter available from Microsoft. I imagine somebody internally sat there trying to install Visual Studio (or something similar) and thought “This is bullshit. Why the hell can’t Windows mount an .iso?” So they went and wrote a utility to do it.

And of course, on a totally different topic, Apple’s developer tools are entirely free.

Oh, and as I was writing this my Windows machine went to sleep, in the middle of importing a video from my video camera. Thanks Windows! I didn’t actually want that anyway! And the importing application crashed in the process (the second time in the last 1/2 hour). As Christian Bale would say: “you’re a fucking amateur, you know that?”

Posted in HCI

Got Me A Dell

I usually use a Mac at school, but I often do development on Windows, so I ordered a Dell XPS laptop. I received it today, after almost a month of waiting. Here I will catalog some of my observations on the Windows/Dell user experience. This list will hopefully expand as I notice new things.

  1. The packaging is pretty cheap. The box is twice as big as that for my MacBook Pro, and things seem just randomly tossed inside.
  2. Windows welcomes you in a most unwelcoming way. On the Mac it plays you a friendly tone and shows you a snazzy video. Not exactly useful, but the gesture is appreciated. On the Windows machine pretty much the first thing you see is a dialog box saying “click here if you agree with this end-user license agreement.” Twice. That’s like walking into an ice cream shop and getting kicked in the groin.
  3. The IE title bar says “Internet Explorer provided by Dell.” Listen Dell people: I know I am using a Dell. You don’t need to put your company name in the IE title bar. It reeks of desperation.
  4. External monitor support is clumsy.
  5. The build quality is actually pretty good, although the track pad is small and its surface texture is lacking.
  6. Please don’t put stickers on my laptop.
  7. My first time logging in there was a flurry of various security programs complaining about other security programs.
  8. The default items in the Windows menu are: Windows Media Center, Windows Ultimate Extras, Windows Media Player, Windows Photo Gallery, Windows Live Messenger Download, Windows DVD Maker, Windows Meeting Space, and Windows Mobility Manager. This is branding run amok, and somebody should be ashamed for putting the word “Windows” 8 times for absolutely no reason in the most important menu in the OS.
  9. The Google widgets thing crashed the very first time it ran, then the second time it ran, then the third time it ran. It will be run no more.
  10. I suppose you think you’re cool by making the multimedia controls entirely touch-based (i.e. no tactile feedback) but in fact you are just being dumb. Kind of like the kids in highschool who wore their pants backwards to be like Kriss Kross.
Posted in HCI

Chapters Plans Ahead

I have a Chapters gift card for $25. On the back is the presumably unique bar-code for the card, and the numeric equivalent for the bar-code written underneath. The number is 31 digits long. That makes possible roughly a nonillion (thanks wikipedia!) unique gift cards. If Chapters sells a million gift cards a year, they won’t run out of numbers until roughly septillion years from now. This puts my credit card, with its mere 16 digits, to shame.

So, what’s the big deal? Who cares? They will just scan the card through the cash register anyway. You don’t care about the numbers on the back. Well, it turns out that you do if you want to buy The Black Swan and Use of Weapons using the Chapters website. To use your gift card on the web you have to type in the 31 digit code by hand, and then when it turns out to be incorrect you have to type it in again, and then a 3rd time. And then eventually, after typing in 31*n (n depending on your tolerance for repetitive tasks) numbers, you give up and swear at Chapters.

So, what’s the lesson? First: 31 digits is a few too many. Second: there should be a mechanism for using gift cards on the web that doesn’t involve typing in numbers at all.

Posted in HCI

Crowdsourced Mediocrity

I’ve never been a big fan of the whole “crowdsourcing” theory as it relates to the wisdom of crowds. I am rather a believer in the power of the individual, a single person’s ability to achieve great things. This may reflect my own hope that some day I will emerge as being one of these great people (I’m still waiting), but I think there is also a fair amount of evidence pointing towards the over-hyping of crowdsourcing as an approach towards accomplishing great things that are not achievable by small talented groups.

My favourite example comes from a talk at a CHI conference (2007 or 2008), where some guy was giving a talk on the subject. His best example of successful crowdsourcing involved three composers who collaborated in writing an opera. First of all, three is not a crowd. Second, these three were not members of “the masses,” but were rather expert composers. This example is a big fail in my book.

This leads me on a bit of a tangent to thoughts on online communities, where discussion forums serve as collections of wisdom created in real time by crowds of collaborators. The two examples I will use are www.digg.com and www.fark.com. Both of these communities are centered around the discussion of news items, but I have observed that the “collected wisdom” produced by the two communities differ vastly in quality. In my opinion the discussion on digg tends to be simplistic, poorly thought out, and often of little value. In contrast, the discussion on fark is often sarcastic and silly, but it is at least clever, and this sarcastic content is intermixed with a good deal of intelligent commentary (at least in comparison to digg). Why are digg and fark so different?

I believe the quality of discussion on digg and fark differ so dramatically because of the reward structure in place on the two sites. digg has a complex system for allowing users to vote for comments and stories they like. Higher scored (more popular) comments receive more exposure, and lower scored comments are hidden. This is meant as a mechanism for encouraging quality content. On the other hand fark is egalitarian, in the sense that a comment written by any one user is given exactly the same weight as a comment written by any other user. I believe that the digg approach works exactly opposite to its intended purpose, and the fark approach that would seem to invite abuse instead encourages quality. The problem with the digg approach is that many users are driven primarily by the need for the approval implied by high scored comments. Instead of writing what they think to be interesting and of value, they write what they think will be voted up. These two things are not the same. On the other hand there is no reward structure on fark. There is only the discussion. There is no secondary market of “approval points” to worry about, and I believe this keeps the discussion honest and interesting.

Is there a take-home lesson to this somewhat meandering post? First, I don’t think a crowdsourcing approach will ever be effective at producing breakthroughs, but it can be effective at achieving less grand goals. Second, when constructing a crowdsource-based community one has to be very careful designing the reward structure, because the results you achieve will be optimized for that reward structure.

Posted in HCI

Things Learned From an Economic Collapse

One of my hobbies over the last decade has been reading everything I can find about investing and economics. I am not a serious academic in this sense, but I do spend a large number of lunch hours reading the Globe and Mail or National Post. As everybody knows, the last 4 months or so have been a very difficult time. Stock markets worldwide have tanked, investment banks have collapsed, the US housing market continues to tank, and my local Vancouver housing market has started (finally!) to turn. Based on my readings none of this has surprised me terribly, but recent events have served to reinforce some theories that I have developed over time. These are as follows:

The experts on TV are anything but

News channels from CNN to CBC are very fond of trotting out wise men and women to give us some insight into what has happened and what will be happening. Almost without exception these people were unable to predict all the bad things that have happened in the last year. The fact that housing prices were at clearly untenable levels didn’t give them a hint, nor were they aware of the trillions of dollars in bad derivatives floating around. It should be noted that a very small number of them did know what was going on, and successfully predicted the crash. However these knowledgeable ones, before being proven right, were consistently mocked by the perma-bull guests. A perfect example of this is the appearance by Peter Schiff where he accurately spelled out everything that was going to happen, end got lambasted by the other guests (this video with Ben Stein is also amusing). The lesson? Unless you have done some serious homework on who you are watching and are able to determine they know what they are talking about it is best to completely ignore them.

Large banks will never predict an economic downturn

I’ve invested through 2 recessions now, and neither of them have been predicted by the major banks who hand out advice to clients. After some thought, the reasons for this seem clear. First, banks rely for income on clients being invested. If they tell me “oh, things are looking pretty bad, you should take your money out” then they lose income. They obviously don’t want to do that. Perhaps more importantly, however, is that big banks make markets. By this I mean that if Royal Bank comes out and predicts a collapse then people will listen, and the prediction will hasten and perhaps deepen that collapse. Royal Bank will then be accused of having been partly responsible. So, for the sake of their business I think big banks will never predict a downtown. To clarify this point, I don’t think that the big banks consciously mislead. My theory is that, because of the reasons I outlined, big bank culture encourages employees who are eternally optimistic and discourages employees who have a more realistic outlook. The realistic employees will either leave the bank themselves or be driven out for their non-conformist attitudes. The bank is then left with nothing but eternal optimists.

Politicians will not solve the problem

I have a fairly low opinion of politicians to begin with. They appear on the whole to be of very average intelligence, and typically act in an entirely self-interested manner, focused solely on achieving either election or re-election. So, when faced with something as complex as the economic crisis, which professional economists don’t even understand, I think that there is pretty much zero chance that the politicians will be able to solve anything. It is hard to defend this argument, as in this case with the economic crisis we can’t even confidently define what the problem is. I would nevertheless venture to say that a history of misguided government intervention in the markets has been at least a contributing factor to the current problems, examples being the setting of low interest rates at the beginning of this decade which inflated the housing bubble, and the setting of low reserve ratios.

Being half right can be as bad as being entirely wrong

I mentioned Peter Schiff earlier, and from the mention you might conclude that he must have made a lot of money from his predictions. Well, he didn’t. In fact he probably lost at least as much as most people. Another bright guy, Eric Sprott, who made similar predictions, also lost a lot of money, some of which was mine. Why did this happen, when they made such accurate predictions? They were only half right. They both predicted the housing downturn and the derivatives crisis, but they incorrectly predicted the outcome. Peter Schiff thought that international companies with solid balance sheets would perform well, but they didn’t. Eric Sprott thought that the oil prices would stay at lofty heights, even in the face of a recession, but they didn’t. Both of them predicted a US dollar collapse, and the dollar has soared. The lesson? It is not enough to be mostly right. Mostly right can kill you. And I don’t know of anybody who has been entirely right, which means that the last year has been brutal to almost everybody.

App Pollution

When the iPhone was being rolled out, what really made me perk up was the announcement that there would be an app store where developers from around the world could sell their apps. My reaction was excitement. My thought was that the app store could really differentiate the iPhone from other phones, and could foster the kind of creativity and community that elevates a technology from mere tool to life-changer.

It seems now that the app store is living up to my expectations, but there are clouds on the horizon. I just read today that the current best-selling app is “iFart Mobile.” If you are unfamiliar with this app, it allows you to reproduce a number of distinct fart noises (e.g. “Bubbler” and “Kazoo”) for the delight of friends and family. This has me worried.

My concern is that Apple will make the same mistakes as Facebook. We all know what happened with Facebook apps. The quality Facebook apps were overwhelmed by the crappy garbage that was designed specifically and exclusively to be viral. The Facebook app community is suffering as a result, and I am concerned that the iPhone app community will likewise suffer.

I don’t have a solution to this. All I know is that Apple has to somehow cultivate quality iPhone apps, while discouraging the crap. Allowing the community total power to do so is not effective, as the clever app creators will be able to manipulate the community. Apple must take an active role, while simultaneously respecting community input. Striking a balance between direct intervention and a hands-off laissez-fair approach is a tough thing to do, but is critical, as I think the vitality of the app store will largely determine the longterm fate of the iPhone.

Posted in HCI