It appears that the Vancouver housing market is in trouble. Finally. We’ve been in a boom for the greater part of a decade now, and people were getting very comfortable with the idea that house prices would increase in perpetuity.
I didn’t buy it, and figured that we were entering a bubble. That may sound like bragging after the fact (now that things are clearly on a downturn), but here I admit that I actually messed up royally, not in my judgment, but in my timing. You see, I called a top in the real estate market in 2003. At that point I had some real estate, and for whatever reason as spring time rolled around I decided “this is it, we’ve hit a peak. I’ve got to get out.” So the house went up for sale, got sold in 3 days, and I was sitting much more comfortable, not having to worry about the thing.
At that point I considered buying a condo, and actually looked at one near Metrotown, but the thing was going for 250k, which is a lot, and was only 1200 sq. ft. or so. Sounds like a rip-off to me. So I gave up on that idea as well.
As you can see, I messed up. I was way way early in my pronouncement on real estate doom. And now that it is finally coming to pass I don’t feel all that good that I have proven to be belatedly correct. Being right at the wrong time is the same as being wrong.
As an aside, I find it fascinating how the Vancouver media has made an about-face in its attitude towards real-estate. For several years the local newspapers were among the biggest promoters of real-estate. Now, within the last two months they have very suddenly taken the opposite view, publishing bubble-talk at every opportunity.
Oh, and for the folks who think real-estate will be fine, I want to take this opportunity to respond to the usual arguments:
- Vancouver employment is strong – No it isn’t.
- Vancouver has high wages – No it doesn’t.
- B.C. industry is strong – No it isn’t.
- The Olympics – Please shut up.
- International Destination – Compared to New York? LA? London? Seriously?
- It’s different here – <facepalm>
If you are interested in reading more about the bearish case for Vancouver real-estate, I suggest you visit vancouvercondo.info.